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Computers In Chess Solving Inexact Search Problems by M. M. Botvinnik

By M. M. Botvinnik

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The liberal style is oriented more toward exploration of data and discovery of possibly systematic effects. By contrast, the conservative style reflects a confirmatory attitude toward research results, where one is willing to forego claims about marginal or unexpected findings in order to be more confident about the remaining claims. It might seem that one should be able to calibrate just how liberal to be if one could place relative costs on making too many claims versus making too few claims.

Agiven string contains runs of like outcomes; the aforementioned string starts with a run of two heads 1 To be careful about this assertion, some assumption needs to be made about the variability from trial to trial of the blows imparted to the coin by the flipper’s thumb. The reason for this is that some dextrous conjurors are able to achieve such constancy of the flip stroke that they can make heads come out every time. Without going into the subtleties of the necessary assumption, suffice to say that our hypothetical flipper is highly variable and erratic.

At some point, statisticians might scrutinize performance data to try to adjudicate between real effects and apparent effects more parsimoniously attributed to chance. RANDOM GENERATING PROCESSES 23 Example: The Hot Hand in Basketball One such investigation (Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985) has concerned the so-called”hothand" in basketball. When a player runs off a string of successful shots, aficionados of the game are apt to say that the player is hot, and when in the midst of a series of misses, cold.

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