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Annual Strategy 2011 - Run Rabbit Run by TA Securities

By TA Securities

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Sample text

There have been previous episodes of capital flowing into commodities – notably from the mid 2000s, culminating in oil prices surging to almost $150/bbl by mid 2008. Increasing Domestic Capex. Petronas remains committed to its 2011 capex expenditure budget, estimated at approximately RM40bn to RM45bn. Petronas maintained a healthy domestic capex of RM37bn in FY10. Out of the bulk of this sum RM24bn was devoted to exploration and production (E&P).  As evidenced by the group’s capex in 2010, the trend has now shifted to focus on domestic capex.

In the US, USDA has been on revising downward soybeans yield estimate for the past three months. e. flowering (Jan/Feb) and pod development (Feb/Mar). Historically, dry weather during these stages would result in lower yield when the oilseeds are harvested.  We think this is a long term structural issue as there appears to be a mismatch between the government’s aspiration to increase opportunities for the domestic workforce (due to political and social considerations), low affinity of local jobseekers to take up jobs in the agricultural sector and plantation companies preference for low cost import of human resources.

Prices are expected to average between USD85 to USD95 unless a double dip recession hits the US and European economies. High prices will inevitably lead to a greater Exploration and Production (E&P) activities which will then have a positive impact on service providers. ƒ Large Global Capex. More than USD400bn in annual capex expected globally will be pumped by oil majors into exploration and production activities to ensure sufficient global reserve replacement and refining capacity to meet growing demand that will benefit domestic companies with external exposure.

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